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A Medical Emergency Far Graver Than We Have Experienced in Over a CenturyThat was how, a little over a week ago, on Sunday 15 March 2020, President Cyril Ramaphosa described the global Covid-19 pandemic caused by the novel corona virus, officially known as SARS-CoV-2 ("severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2"). He declared a national state of disaster in terms of the Disaster Management
Act and announced extraordinary measures to curb the spread of infections. We
have "social distancing", no gatherings of more than 100 people, closed places
of learning, and restaurant restrictions. We must: Toastmasters, Krav Maga, and Secular Society meetings have gone online. Many businesses have either closed or reduced their hours and staffing. Supermarkets are still operating. Well done to Pick n Pay for opening from 07:00 to 08:00 on Wednesdays for the over-65's only. The session was well-patronised at Morning Glen Mall last Wednesday. The video The Coronavirus Explained in 8½ minutes makes a useful primer and myth-dispeller.
Infection figures are climbing daily. That is hardly surprising: These are still the people who were infected more than a week ago. The real number of infections may be slowing, at least below what it would have been without drastic measures. Why? The long article Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now explains. Referring to his Chart 7, author Tomas Pueyo makes a distinction between official and true case numbers: The daily official number of coronavirus cases is how many people were diagnosed that day. The true daily cases are found by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started. Crucially, true cases aren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed. Between what authorities in China's Hubei province knew, and what was really happening, there was a lag of about 12 days. On 23 January, the number of new diagnosed cases was around 400 a day. They shut down Wuhan. Note that number: they made a decision to close a city of 11 million with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that. The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down. Up until Wuhan closes, the graph of true cases grows exponentially. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On 24 Jan, when the other cities shut down, the number of true cases grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached. It has gone down ever since. However the official cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like it was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the sick were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor. Add to this, that some 26% of contagions happen before there are symptoms. The author concludes that early proactive measures can reduce the death rate from over 4% to around 0.9%. This is why our government was wise to move last week Sunday. But was it early enough? Odd JobsFuneral Directors have esprit de corpse.
New on the Block, Movers and Shakers Back to top
Restaurant Reviews by Judith Back to topTwo reviews from before the shutdown: *** Riverside Café and Bistro, Riverside Shopping Centre, BryanstonGood wine and Appletiser, the Riverside Burger and the Chicken and Avo on Rye were both good. I did take over two days to eat the latter! Angie gave excellent service. It is a great place to go to for the buzz Contact Details for Riverside Café and Bistro. Back to top **** Chow To Go, Morningview Shopping Centre, South Road, MorningsideMoreblessing Wadenga was amazing. She was alone up front but organised green tea, plus a combo of 2 spring rolls, rice balls and meat skewers. We ended up with prawn toast and Fried Banana Ice cream. Brilliant service and interesting Chinese food. Contact Details for Chow To Go. Back to top Funny Language, English...Do witches like to sit in Wicca chairs?
At Room Temperature: Back to top
Thought for the Day:"I wish motorists would also practice social distancing!" – Gill Taylor. More Covid-19 ResourcesA podcast by Tim Ferriss, author of the "four-hour" series and "Tools of Titans", popular blogger, thought leader, investor, linguist and suspected lunatic: "What I’m most focused on right now — “How to Support Healthcare Workers Now — Plus Urgent Suggestions for Uber Eats, Hilton, Amazon, and More.” Speaking with many doctors on the front lines in NYC and elsewhere, next week is going to be quite scary, and certain people and companies are perfectly positioned to help healthcare workers before the surge. Thank you for listening to and sharing this one. It’s very important and very time sensitive." Tim says that, with the addition of a few 3-D printed parts, a ventilator can be made to serve two or even four people. We might need that. There is a new article by Tomas Pueyo, referred to above "Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance". Summary: Strong measures today should only last a few weeks. There shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed. OUTA Needs YOUR Help to cut Property Rates in the Covid-19 PandemicThe Covid-19 pandemic is having a significant financial impact on businesses and individuals. Thousands of people have lost a significant part of their income. Not all property owners can afford to keep paying property rates. Some have to choose between keeping food on their tables or paying property rates. Municipalities have the power to assist by reducing property rates or giving temporary exemption. OUTA, the Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse, is calling on municipalities countrywide to reduce property rates under the current State of Disaster. Please click on the link to sign the petition calling on your municipality to assist residents. Municipalities only pay attention if a significant number of residents support a petition. Please ask all your contacts to sign, and urge your local media to spread the word. The petition closes at 17:00 on 20 May 2020. SIGN THE PETITION HERE. Checking Out"How is your at-home exercise programme going?" "This morning, I skipped skipping: Sofa, so good!" |
Your name in print! Would you like to contribute a shop- or restaurant review, a less obscure joke, or something else for this Newsletter? Please e-mail us. You will get full credit (unless you want anonymity). Reach 5,650 shoppers and shop-owners: Advertise in this newsletter! Editor: Rick Raubenheimer.