A Medical Emergency Far Graver Than We Have Experienced in Over a Century

That was how, a little over a week ago, on Sunday 15 March 2020, President Cyril Ramaphosa described the global Covid-19 pandemic caused by the novel corona virus, officially known as SARS-CoV-2 ("severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2").

He declared a national state of disaster in terms of the Disaster Management Act and announced extraordinary measures to curb the spread of infections. We have "social distancing", no gatherings of more than 100 people, closed places of learning, and restaurant restrictions.  We must:
• Wash hands often with soap and water or hand sanitisers for at least 20 seconds;
• When coughing and sneezing, cover the nose and mouth with a tissue or flexed elbow;
• Avoid close contact with anyone with cold- or flu-like symptoms.
• Minimise physical contact with other people, and avoid shaking hands.

Toastmasters, Krav Maga, and Secular Society meetings have gone online.

Many businesses have either closed or reduced their hours and staffing.  Supermarkets are still operating.  Well done to Pick n Pay for opening from 07:00 to 08:00 on Wednesdays for the over-65's only. The session was well-patronised at Morning Glen Mall last Wednesday.

The video The Coronavirus Explained in 8½ minutes makes a useful primer and myth-dispeller.

Infection figures are climbing daily.  That is hardly surprising: These are still the people who were infected more than a week ago. The real number of infections may be slowing, at least below what it would have been without drastic measures.  Why?

The long article Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now explains.  Referring to his Chart 7, author Tomas Pueyo makes a distinction between official and true case numbers:

The daily official number of coronavirus cases is how many people were diagnosed that day. The true daily cases are found by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.  Crucially, true cases aren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.

Between what authorities in China's Hubei province knew, and what was really happening, there was a lag of about 12 days.

On 23 January, the number of new diagnosed cases was around 400 a day. They shut down Wuhan.  Note that number: they made a decision to close a city of 11 million with just 400 new cases in a day.  In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.  The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

Up until Wuhan closes, the graph of true cases grows exponentially. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On 24 Jan, when the other cities shut down, the number of true cases grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached.  It has gone down ever since.

However the official cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like it was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the sick were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor.  Add to this, that some 26% of contagions happen before there are symptoms.

The author concludes that early proactive measures can reduce the death rate from over 4% to around 0.9%.  This is why our government was wise to move last week Sunday.  But was it early enough?

Odd Jobs

Funeral Directors have esprit de corpse.

New on the Block, Movers and Shakers  Back to top

• Erawan Thai Restaurant and Bar has de-franchised as Jintara Thai - Sushi - Dim Sum, Shop 3, Ground in Riverside Shopping Centre – Offering "delicious Asian food, delivered with impeccable service".
• Livingstones Supply Co. 18 Waterval Crescent in Woodmead Area Shops – Suppliers to the Hospitality Industry. Hotel quality linen at wholesale pricing, cutlery, crockery, glassware, catering equipment, luxury tents, table linen, blankets, throws, towelling, bed linen, game drive equipment, cooler boxes, fridges, ovens, lodge furniture, patio furniture. Mosquito nets made to order.
• Absolute Pets & Pet Spa, Ground in Riverside Shopping Centre – Pet washing and grooming. Pet Food: Vet's Choice, Eukanuba, Hills, Iams, etc., pet toys, dog and cat beds etc.
• Consultant Dietician Dalene Rottier moved from Dunwoody Centre to Building 1, Allhart Business Park, 152 Western Service Road, Cnr Woodlands Drive, Woodmead. A Registered Dietitian is the only medically qualified nutritional professional: the title is protected by the Health Professions Council. Consultations, including via Skype, and on-site Corporate Wellness days.
• Grant Monaghan, Rivonia 7th Avenue in Rivonia Area Shops – Medical Prosthetist, Orthotist & Podiatrist. Crutches, elastic stockings, etc. 3 De La Rey Rd, Rivonia.
• Avon Mitri Eye Care, Shop 48, Upper Level in Morning Glen Mall – Sunglass and eyewear boutique. Belongs to Avon Mitri Optometrist.
• Coming soon, where Solomons was: Protea Home, Shop 16, Lower Level in Morning Glen Mall – No apparent relation to Protea Hotels or Protea Home for the Aged.

Restaurant Reviews by Judith Back to top

Two reviews from before the shutdown:

*** Riverside Café and Bistro, Riverside Shopping Centre, Bryanston

Good wine and Appletiser, the Riverside Burger and the Chicken and Avo on Rye were both good. I did take over two days to eat the latter! Angie gave excellent service. It is a great place to go to for the buzz

Contact Details for Riverside Café and Bistro.  Back to top